And the nominees are?

[cinemabon]

It's that time of year when the speculation begins for our annual trip to film's Mecca. Many choices seem obvious (like Helen Mirren for Best Actress), and many obscure ones, too (perhaps "An Inconvenient Truth" for doc and Will Smith for Best Actor as well). I don't see any particular movie grabbing all the glory this year, which means we have a wide open field.

The two largest contributors to this site, Oscar Jubis and Chris Knipp will obviously weigh in as will Johann, Mouton and others.

Come on guys, get off your duppa and lets hear it!

[mouton]

Alright ... the challenge is on. I started narrowing down the fields. There may be few clear favorites but there are so many possibilities ... more later!!

(I like the Oscars a little too much I think)

[oscar jubis]

Ok. Why not...Those listed below are guaranteed to get nominated and have a good chance to win.

Best Movie: Babel, The Queen, The Departed
Best Actress: Helen Mirren, Penelope Cruz, Meryl Streep
Best Actor: Peter O'Toole, Forest Whitaker
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls), Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Director: Martin Scorsese, Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu
Foreign Film: Volver, Pan's Labyrinth
Supporting Actor: Not so sure about this one. Pitt, Nicholson and Murphy are likely nominees partly because of name recognition.

[mouton]

Although I haven't weighed in with my predictions yet, I'm not so certain Babel will have such a strong showing as you're suggesting, Oscar. Not to say it doesn't deserve it but I feel like its hype is fading faster than it should.

[oscar jubis]

I like Babel less than you but its the kind of film Academy voters like to nominate. If the studio pushes it hard, and I think they will, it's a sure thing.

[mouton]

I'm not sold about its sure bet status ... regardless of my opinion. I wouldn't mind seeing it among the final five. I certainly think its worthy. However, the possibilities are numerous and some will be left behind ... "Sure Bet" has also been thrown at DREAMGIRLS and DEPARTED. And BABEL will also have to battle for a spot with LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA, LITTLE CHILDREN, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE, CHILDREN OF MEN and UNITED 93.

Considering how much I've complained about this year's films, its gonna be a real tight race!

[mouton]

Boys and girls
(are there any girls here?)
These are my official predictions
for the 8 major categories.
I would like to stress that these
are not my personal picks but
just what I feel OSCAR will honour.
What do I win if I get em all right?

BEST PICTURE

Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo Dicaprio, Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

BEST ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Brad Pitt, Babel

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Adriana Barraza, Babel
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Last King of Scotland
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
Volver

BEST DIRECTOR

Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Paul Greengrass, United 93
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorcese, The Departed


The hardest category to narrow down
I found to be the director category.
We shall see ... and my own personal
favorites of the year are to be announced
on January 22.

(PS ... is it me or does Meryl Streep have
no business being nominated in the lead
actress category for her Devil role?)

[cinemabon]

Stanley Kubrick thinks you would look good with a lollypop, aka Lolita, if you get them all correct!

[oscar jubis]

Now that the Globes and the Guilds have announced their nominations, it's become quite predictable to pick nominees. Mouton's picks in the 4 acting categories, for instance, are exactly the same as the noms for the Screen Actors Guild. Makes sense. As for your directorial picks, mouton, I would consider Condon (Dreamgirls) and the couple who directed Little Ms. Sunshine based on the noms by the Directors Guild (which came out yesterday). What has me really excited is the possibility of Ryan Gosling getting nominated. I still cannot quite believe Academy members would have such good taste. These are the same people who gave Best Picture Oscars to Crash and A Beautiful Mind.

[mouton]

Yeah, it was starting to become fairly simple to choose in a couple of the categories. My picks usually only waver with one or two names. I did in fact consider Bill Condon and the directing duo of Little Miss Sunshine but I just can't ignore the direcor of Babel as his actors seem to be popping up everywhere. Scorsese is for sure. Clint is an Oscar favorite although I think he may be the first to go. And Paul Greengrass and United 93 need to be acknowledged somewhere. Frears also seems a lock. I feel that Little Miss Sunshine will likely be honoured in the screenwriting category and though Condon is certainly a contender, Dreamgirls lacks direction at times and someone needs to miss out. It was a difficult category.

It was also sad to face that Little Children will probably not be getting the recgnition it deserves. I don't know if there will be room for it in the Picture and Director categories ... places it belongs. I also feel United 93 will get shorchanged. Should be interesting.

While there are locks, each category has one or two names that could end up being replaced by another. I feel that this year's race is exciting in its unpredictability. I hate when everything is obvious. There's no fun in that.

On that note, why bother nominating anyone other than Helen Mirren and Forest Whitaker in the acting categories?

[oscar jubis]

Funny. I liked Dreamgirls a lot less than you. But I happen to think Bill Condon's directing is brilliant. I'm convinced he'll get nominated. Directing a film musical is particularly challenging, with directors usually forced to storyboard every scene in advance. What I don't like about Dreamgirls is the play on which it is based. But the directing is truly exceptional.
By the way, I posted lists of my favorite dvds and undistributed films of 2006. But the other lists won't be compiled until I watch Iwo Jima, Perfume, Good German, Venus, Miss Potter, The Dead Girl, etc. etc. I don't see the point of lists that don't take into account all 2006 films deemed of enough quality to be released late in the year.

Mirren will win. But O'Toole has a good chance against Whitaker.